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Neil Rubin

On The Other Hand

Editor — exploring modern Jewry

When The War Began

It turns out that the joint U.S.-Israeli Cyber War On Iran began about two and ½ years ago. And to the best of our knowledge it’s been highly successful, has pushed off an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear sites and has had the strong backing of the Obama administration (so sorry to report that to the Barrack Hussein “Must Be Part Of The Muslim Horde That Wants To Destroy America” Obama crowd). Most importantly, it has not resulted in the cataclysmic response expected from a conventional strike.

We know this in large part due to the New York Times, which this past weekend offered a remarkable piece on how the Stuxnet worm was introduced into Iranian software after being jointly tested by the Israelis and Americans. (Read it here: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/world/middleeast/16stuxnet.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=stuxnet&st=cse ).

The virus has pushed off Teheran’s nuclear timetable by up to three or four years (now confirmed by outgoing Israeli intelligence chief Meir Dagan). It gets better. The Iranians may have discovered the threat, but all of the worm’s variations are reportedly not yet active.

What happened? In 2008 the German company Siemens, whose controller devices are in computers at the Natanz Iranian nuclear site, detailed for the Americans the system’s weaknesses – a.k.a. how to attack it. The Americans and the Israelis then went to work, somehow infecting the Iranian network. Thousands of centrifuges – used in creating enriched uranium for bombs—began tearing themselves apart as indicators reported all was fine.

The plan, first initiated by President George W. Bush, was sped up by President Barack Obama. That makes sense as the latter has repeatedly declared reducing nuclear proliferation a primary foreign policy goal.

So are we still but months from a sustained Israeli air attack against Iran’s dozen or so nuclear installations, which could result in thousands of Hezbollah rockets on northern Israel, hundreds more from Gaza, a potentially a new massive uprising from Palestinians and the burning of U.S. embassies across the globe?

Israeli analysts are suggesting the picture is not clear. Defense Minister Ehud Barak – now freed from political restraints after ditching his left-leaning Labor Party on Monday (a party he nearly destroyed anyway) – is still pressing Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for an expected military strike this spring.

But Barak is unlikely to have his way at this point, even as preparations do (and should) go forward.

So we return to two time-tested adages:

The first: Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

The second: We don’t know what we don’t know.

Still, today Mideast tealeaf reading is a little easier. The Iranian nuclear project, at a minimum, has taken a hit – albeit definitely not a game ender. Let’s give credit to both the Bush and Obama administrations, as well as the Israelis, for undertaking the hard work the free world would rather ignore, but whose benefits it will reap.

 

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 01/19/11 at 09:53 AM

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