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Neil Rubin

On The Other Hand

Editor — exploring modern Jewry

The Arab Zatar Revolution

As most fans of Middle East food know, Zatar is a particularly unique and wonderful spice that is tasty on nearly any meat or vegetable. So should we call the wave of unrest in the Arab Middle East a Zatar Revolution?

Yes and no. Despite what many commentators are saying, each spot – Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia and Yemen – is remarkably different.

One overall question unexplored by most commentators: Are these countries facing a Russian 1918 moment? Back then, the Great Bear was amidst civil war between a tottering democratic government and a populist communist movement willing to turn on its own. Should we replace “communist” with “Islamic fundamentalists”?

Still, there are real differences in these countries brimming with discontent.

Egypt: As of this writing, the street unrest is in day four and very serious. It could quickly turn into a blood bath with the wrong order from the wrong soldier. Unlike in the other venues, there are three distinct anti-government forces here that could unite in revolution – but only temporarily. They are: Coptic Christians, Islamic Brotherhood advocates and secular democracy activists. There is some overlap between the first and the third. None with the Islamic fundamentalists.

So if the Mubarak regime is toppled, who rules? The answer: The army. It alone has the means to control the streets. Best case scenario: Turkey in the 1970s. Worst case scenario: Lebanon in the 1970s.

Look for Mubarak to promise reforms – and be pressed by the United States to implement them. They will include that his son Gamal will not take his spot.

Tunisia: The one that started it all – way back last week – is far from over. Now that the old regime’s cronies have been kicked out, new regime cronies must cement power. In the Middle East, that always comes at the cost of another group – which could create unhealthy anger. Again, the army is in tact. Who will the commanders listen to? Look for President Sarkozy in France, bent on making his country relevant again in the world, offer to mediate the future of his nation’s former colony.

Yemen: One cannot imagine the few demonstrations going anywhere in a country where central rule is already anarchic at best. The government basically only has control of the main cities and it does not even do that well. The safest place in the country is often the port when a U.S. ship is docked there (despite the U.S.S. Cole bombing from 1999).

Jordan: Remember that Jordan’s rulers have used their faithful Bedouin soldiers in the past to deliver a bloody defeat to their Palestinian citizens, about 70 percent of the population. The King of Jordan has traditionally switched prime ministers and dissolved parliament for new elections in the past to appease radicals. That’s allowed for new blood to come in that is at times more responsive. He’ll do what it takes and his rule will be cemented until the next period of unrest. King Abdallah, in the tradition of his father, is one of the smarter rulers in the region.

Elsewhere: For sure, the Syrians have already rounded up potentially trouble makers (democracy advocates, student leaders they don’t control, journalists, etc.) They will not let this populism spread to their borders. And if by some chance it does, it will forcefully end quickly.

The Saudis? Too many people are too rich there to rock the boat. The real second class there – the women – sadly have no power to change matters.

The Palestinians? They are neither in love with the Palestinian Authority or Hamas. But, as the old song goes, “What do they have in common? They all hate the Jews.” Don’t look for discontent there to be directed in any other direction. For now, all is relatively quiet on that front and will remain so. To challenge the PA or Hamas while Israel still controls Palestinian fate is akin to national treason, a bridge that when crossed has fatal consequences for the wanderer.

Lebanon, of course, is a different ball game. For the moment, Hezbollah is much happier being out of the government but still able to pull the strings. Things are dicey indeed here. There can be no accurate predictions.

What will be? Let’s check back in next week. For sure, surprises are coming.

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 01/28/11 at 03:33 PM

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