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Neil Rubin

On The Other Hand

Editor — exploring modern Jewry

Israeli Coalition Prediction

A note on Israel’s inconclusive elections on Tuesday, Feb. 10, in which Tzippy Livni’s centrist Kadima gained 28 seats and Binyamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s center-right gained 27 seats. Both are far short of reaching a 61-seat majority in the Knesset, which has prompted Israel’s usual noxious backroom deals for support.

Well, I’m betting on the odds that Bibi gets the tap from Israeli President Shimon Peres next Wednesday to form a government, which leads to Livni’s decrying of “denial of the people’s desires.” Guess what Tzippy? The people didn’t really want you or Bibi. After all, both of you gained only around a whopping 25 percent of the electorate.

Bibi’s the likely next boss because his overall right and center-right won more than Tzippy’s left and center-left.

I’m hoping that as Prime Minister Bibi will draw in another secular party in addition to the right-wing Yisrael Beitenu (15 seats). Ehud Barak of the center-left Labor (13 seats), says he won’t join. But frankly, he needs to be kicked out as head of the party (which his leadership style has basically destroyed) and then the party needs to enter the government. The Sephardi Orthodox Shas (11seat) will be chomping at the bit to get in, which will enable it to fund its always financially tottering school system. It would be fantastic if a chunk of Kadima went into the coalition. Even Tzippy is now saying – defying what she said during the campaign – that she might be game. That would mean she’d stay on as Foreign Minister, which could slow down any right-wing tendencies of Bibi’s government.

This would all give Bibi give him room to maneuver around the threat of a right-wing party pulling down his government, which is what happened in 1999. Here’s to hoping that Bibi is a much more effective manager than he was in that top job from 1996-99. I do think his experience as Foreign Minister, Finance Minister and opposition leader since then has seasoned him – and he needed it.

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 02/12/09 at 08:56 AM

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